Be always at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let each new year find you a better man. ~Benjamin Franklin
Monthly Archives: December 2012
Roadmap * Crude Oil $USO $CL_F
Little time for written update -which will come later.
In the meantime, a picture speaks a thousand words.
Longer Term (Perspective)
Shorter Term
Roadmap * Gold $GLD $GC_F
Little time for written update -which will come later.
In the meantime, a picture speaks a thousand words.
???URO update – $EURUSD $6E_F #forex #fx $$
Already included in yesterday´s post, no critical levels have changed.
Aceptance/rotation within upper areas of value, contained between 1.3190-1.3145.
I would wait for the accepted levels to be breached before making any decision.
Buyers still in control, so far.
If sellers take action, teh first (important) area where I would like to see buying will be 1.3100-1.3070, followed 1.3040 (mild) & 1.3016-1.2998… Lots to fill, in the event of downside pressure.
Breach of 1.3160 will like provide downward pressure…. 1.3088 is another POC to take into account, followed by 1.3100 & 1.3085/80 and 1.3040 and 1.30´s
Alternatively, provided buyers mantain conttrol, I would like to see 1.3196 being breached with conviction, followed by 1.3250-1.3210 & 1.3360-1.3290.
1.3217 as an important price point.
NOTE: I wrongly posted an old chart – reedited with the correct one.
The week ahead * ???URO update – $EURUSD $6E_F $$ #forex #fx
Uptrend week…. 200 pips with almost no retracement.
We have started a (cautious) upside view last Tuesday Dec. 11th, which was later confirmed.
What to expect in the following days?
Although somewhat in the upper echelon of my charts and close to a mayor Key Reference Area (KRA), tested 3x since early September (and Mid-October), the vertical development that price action experienced back on Friday it´s undeniable, specially in conjunction with the previous 3-day Balance, preceding the move. The type of behavior that suggests more upside
Conversely, it is undeniable that the pair has had almost not rested during the last swing move. Add to the fact that it is trading close to two mayor swing spots: 1.3180 & 1.3250-1.3210. Both areas in which I would expect some sort of participation from sellers.
The strenght of the uptrend will likely be provided by the levels of retracement in which buyers decide to take action
– The pair is currently testing the immediate area 1.3170-1.3156
– Below, we would be expecting buyers to action in the following areas:
– 1.3143-1.3130
– 1.3100-1.3070, specifically 1.3085 (this seems like an important area where some rotation
would likely be expected)
– 1.3050-1.3030, specifically 1.3040 – This is my line in the sand for short-term uptrend to be
contained
– 1.3016-1.300 is a KRA for the uptrend to continue
Pressure of sellers close to 1.2940´s will likely create more selling pressure to test 1.2880´s
The above, is represented in 2 different areas, in order to have a clearer road map for the next few days.
Perspective ($GC_F $CL_F $6E_F $EURUSD $$)
$GC_F
$CL_F
EUR/USD
Firefly. #film
???URO update – $EURUSD $6E_F $$ #forex
Euro has been flirting with the upper end of the zone marked yesterday, marking a swing high of 1.3121.
Buyers have been supportive regardless of the many attempts by sellers
Symmetrical profile suggests either consolidation or distribution, depending on the context (see previous posts)
Areas marked on Wednesday post still apply
– Trend is still up, although -as noted-, 1.3120-1.3095 is an important area where I would expect some sort of selling to occur
– 1.3140 is a swing spot where important imbalanace between supply and demand took place, previously
– 1.3110 as POC, followed by 1.3072 (where I would expect some buyers to act, provided a retracement takes place)
– 1.3040 POC is another spot where I would expect buyers to take the stand
-1.3018-1.2996 is currently my line in the sand to mantain upside momentum, on a shorter term basis.
We could either have reached a temporary situation in which demand will wind down. In that case, the above referenced prices and areas are still valid.
Alternatively, provided buyers are supportive of price action, we could be in presence of a new leg up.
1.3110 is key price point. It needs to be breached by sustained buying to see further upside
the top of the zone, 1.3120 is another key price point to take into account
1.3140 is a mayor swing spot. I wouldn ´t be surprised for this price point to be tested, provided 1.3120 gets supportive buyers. I would be cautious around this level and will be looking for a sustained follow up. Provided that is the case, I do not see much resistance until 1.3210.
???URO update – $EURUSD $6E_F $$ #forex
€uro is trading at 1.3070, after bouncing from 1.3040. This was an area that was pointed out yesterday as a possible zone for buyers to get involved.
1.3040 POC is another spot where I would expect buyers to take the stand
What to look for? There hasn´t been many changes as of yesterday´s post:
– 1.3180 – 1.3140 is a key area. They swing spot has been tested 4 times over the last 4 months.
– The next swing spot above is located at 1.3300 – Likely is (provided 1.3180 gets breached) that we might see a test towards these levels.
– Provided sellers show up into the 1.3100´s area, I am playing with the scenario of 1.3000s to be retested, which still the current line in the sand for short term upside momentum. Below that, not much until 1.2965´s and 1.2940.
???URO update (Post FOMC) – $EURUSD $6E_F
Following this morning´s update, a few observations
– Currently trading at 1.3089, as I am writing as Bernanke is starting to speak.
– Trend is still up, although -as noted-, 1.3120-1.3095 is an important area where I would expect some sort of selling to occur
– 1.3140 is a swing spot where important imbalanace between supply and demand took place, previously
– 1.3110 as POC, followed by 1.3072 (where I would expect some buyers to act, provided a retracement takes place)
– 1.3040 POC is another spot where I would expect buyers to take the stand
-1.3018-1.2996 is currently my line in the sand to mantain upside momentum, on a shorter term basis.
Demian Pack 