Not much to add from my previous posts – Market still balanced.
Still within scenario “a”, posted on March. 1st.-
I´ll be looking at how price action develops within scenario “b” (eventual rejection of lower value in the $1564´s).
a key sitaution I am currently looking into, which was pointed out last week
What it is important to note, is the fact that today´s move has wiped out all the long positions that were left from yesterday. This is kind of particular situation, since reference points (in terms of orderflow) tend to be weak. Usually, what I´ve found out in similar situations is that it usually ends up in an important move, in either direction.
As you´ll not eform the chart below, longs from $1572 are currently being pressure by sellers . this is a particular situation which should be taken into account in the sense that it might bring 2 opposite outcomes to the table
a-) longs not only sustain selling pressure, but reverse it into an overwhelmingly short market, which in turn creates the fuel for a rally
b-) selling pressure continues. Longs retreat sending price lower into a tailspin.
Again, my line in the sand for recovering upward momentum are $1600-$1598, followed by $1620-$1615.
I have moved towards hosting my blog at wordpress. From now on, this will be the new platform.
I have migrated most of the content with their help form WP staff (TY again!). However, some posts were lost in migration.
Thus, here´s the analysis on Gold, which was postmarked last night (you can see the source here), after the market opened on Sunday.
One of the scenario´s laid out back on Friday did actually play out.
I am not having a clear picture here.
On one side, I am working with the hypothesis of more consolidation in the area contained between this week lows ($1554), and Yesterday´s quick rejection of $1585´s by sellers is a hint here. I am leaning into the possibility of tagging $1594-$1592, followed by $1600, if buyers regain control….
The area within $1585 has proved to provide some selling with committed pressure to the downside. This could prove to be an inflection point, which should be further confirmed by the break of $1590-$1595, within next few days, provided buyers manage to mantain control,
Alternatively, provided selling continues, $1570-$1568 should be an area to look for to see if buyers look to defend.
This approach has been presented last Wed., Feb. 21 as one of three possiblilities to take into account, within a bigger picture. All of them are still valid.
Thus, three different scenarios to take into account:
REJECTION of current area + buyers take control – Gold experiences an important retracement towards the $1580´s, $1590,s, even $1600 – I do not see it very likely, unless the above referenced levels are breached with intense and continued buying action
CONSOLIDATION INTO THE CURRENT (LOWER) VALUE AREA – Possible scenario, contained towards the $1585 area.
POSSIBLE CONTINUATION INTO LOWER AREAS OF VALUE – Also possible. In this case, I´ll be looking at the levels provided above. $1525 is key. I would be warry if price breaks down this level.
I am working with the idea that, if $1562 gets tested, likely is that we could see a retest of the lows at $1553, if not even further. In that sense, I´m leaning into the possibility that a break of $1548, will likely put back into $1525 territory.