???URO update (adeu #Sandy) – $EURUSD $6E_F $$ #forex

Yesterday, I wrote about the weak area above 1.2935 as a possible area for price to move.

I wrote about 1.2935 about being a key price point. It is still the case. Above that, there’s plenty of space for price to probe into higher areas of value. The red dooted horizontal lines denote that what I have conceptualized as weak areas

The chart below, was posted yesterday.

2012-10-30_1137

Currently, this is how it is looking

2012-10-31_1006

the move stopped at the zone marked 1.3021-1.3037 in an accurate point, as noted below.

2012-10-31_1009

Also, I want to stress out the importance of POCs regarding critical areas within the upmove, as noted below.

2012-10-31_1011

what to look for?

2 Hypotesis:

– To the Upside: 1.3021-1.3037 should not provided too much work for price to penetrate 1.3042-1.3070s is a more important area where I would expect sellers to show up some muscle

– To the Downside: 1.2976-1.2955 as a previous buying area, followed by 1.2913-1.2880

2012-10-31_10222012-10-31_1014

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EURO UPDATE (post #Sandy edition) $EURUSD $6E_F $$ #forex

Buyers got interested after a brief rotation around the area marked yesterday and price has gained some momentum. Currently trading  at 1.2959 (10:40AM ET).

2012-10-30_1056

My guess is that once London session liquidity dries up -after noon, ET- we will not see much since the US Markets are still closed today.

However, I want to point out some things.

Yesterday, I wrote about 1.2935 about being a key price point. It is still the case. Above that, there’s plenty of space for price to probe into higher areas of value. The red dooted horizontal lines denote that what I have conceptualized as weak areas (see previous posts, but basically the idea beneath them is that price has not sufficiently rotated/probed around, thus making this areas subject to be revisited, at later time)

2012-10-30_11372012-10-30_1135

Also, POCs are worth a mention. Particularly, I’m stressing their importance as key areas to take into account . Specifically:

– 1.2880, 1.2890 & 1.2904. Note on the chart below how price clearly rotated around these numbers, before moving into higher areas of value

2012-10-30_1138

– 1.2935.although not as important as the area marked above, theres still some rotation around this number. Price action “took a breath”, before moving into higher areas of value.

2012-10-30_1139

– 1.2965 & 1.2968 – price has been rotating around this area, as I’m writing this post.

2012-10-30_11402012-10-30_1140

My point is that these numbers are not random events, but there’s a logic behind them, meaning that they are taken into by market players, collectively speaking.

What to look for? Probably as US markets get back to regular schedule, likely is that we would start seeing some more defined direction. 

To the upside, I do not see many interesting areas to sell, until 1.3043-1.3070. Price still might look to fill this area. 

To the downside, 1.2879-1.2833 // 1.2827-1.2803 // 1.2810-1.2756 (most important)

 

???URO UPDATE (#Sandy Edition) – $EURUSD $6E_F $$ #forex

With all the US Markets closed due to Huricanne, Storm, whatever, choppy conditions will probably take it nowehere onc eliquidity from London dries up.

Curently trading at 1.2912 (11:28AM ET), price has been rotating around the bottom end of POC´s marked yesterday 1.2904 & 1.2880, curently in lower areas of value. Again, 1.2935 (I wrote 1.2940 back on Sunday) is key for now.

2012-10-29_1225

Some more detailed areas below.

2012-10-29_1227

Some impressions for the upcoming days * ???URO update – $EURUSD $6E_F $$

Following Wednesday´s post, I´ve worked with the following hypothesis

 

What I´ll be looking for today? Buyers have stepped up as i´m writing this post (8:51ET EUR/USD 1.2948) right the at the bottom range of the area marked yesterday. So far, the pressure has been mild.

Numbers posted previously are still valid:

1.2970 is still key, so 1.2990 & 1.3018

To the downside, 1.29030 & 1.2868.

One scenario has to do with continuation of the vertical development into lower areas of value, via a previous retest of 1.2980-1.3000.

1.2916-1.2890 is a weak area…

 

2012-10-28_2219_001

Price action (partially) validated the above 1.3018 was reached, area in which sellers stepped up causing a 100 pip+ retracement into 1.2890 on Thursday. Price point which was also noted.

Friday showed buyers defend the 1.2890 level. Price action aimed towards higher areas of value but was not able to surpass the 1.2950´s. Sunday open reached the POC´s at 1.2968 & 1.2964, only to retrace towards lower value areas.

Volatility has increased and range has expanded, while price is currently hoovering on the lower end of the (BIG) range within a bigger uptrend, as described last week.

Some impressions for the upcoming days:
– 1.2940 is a key price point. Above that, I do not see any meaningful area until 1.3043-1.3070´s and (a more important) 1.3082-1.3131. Below that, I´ll be looking at 1.3020-1.3038, although this is a small zone.
– Below 1.2940 there´s also plenty of room for price to probe for lower value areas. The meaningful area  I would expect buyer´s to defend is 1.2808-1.2755  (POC@1.2784). Price reaching these lower value areas will make me wary and -possibly- reassess my upward bias.
– At the moment price is currently in the middle/lower end of the range, so odds are pretty much 50/50. I have a slight upward bias.
– A useful tool would be to use the POC´s (pink dotted lines) as key areas in which -usually- price tends to rotate and respect. There has always been some sort of reaction (or rotation) within those Those POC´s are
1.3065
1.3058
1.3018
1.2990
1.2968
1.2965
1.2935
1.2904
1.2880
2012-10-28_22582012-10-28_2321

As I´m writing (Sunday Oct. 28 10:15PM ET) buyers have stepped in. I´ll try to draft a brief update before NY Session opens.

 

Some impressions for the upcoming days * ???URO update – $EURUSD $6E_F $$

following Wednesday ´s post, I´ve worked with the following hypothesis

What I´ll be looking for today? Buyers have stepped up as i´m writing this post (8:51ET EUR/USD 1.2948) right the at the bottom range of the area marked yesterday. So far, the pressure has been mild.

Numbers posted previously are still valid:

1.2970 is still key, so 1.2990 & 1.3018

To the downside, 1.29030 & 1.2868.

One scenario has to do with continuation of the vertical development into lower areas of value, via a previous retest of 1.2980-1.3000.

1.2916-1.2890 is a weak area…

Price action (partially) validated the above 1.3018 was reached, area in which sellers stepped up causing a 100 pip+ retracement into 1.2890 on Thursday. Price point which was also noted.

Friday showed buyers defend the 1.2890 level. Price action aimed towards higher areas of value but was not able to surpass the 1.2950´s. Sunday open reached the POC´s at 1.2968 & 1.2964, only to retrace towards lower value areas.

Volatility has increased and range has expanded, while price is currently hoovering on the lower end of the (BIG) range described in previous posts.

Some impressions for the upcoming days
– 1.2940 is a key price point. Above that, I do not see any meaningful area  until 1.3043-1.3070´s and (a more important) 1.3082-1.3131
– Below 1.2940 there´s also plenty of room for price to probe for lower value areas. The meaningful area  I would expect buyer´s to defend is 1.2808-1.2755  (POC@1.2784). Price reaching these lower value areas will make me wary and -possibly- reassess my upward bias.
– A useful tool would be to use the POC´s as key areas in which -usually- price tends to rotate and respect. Those POC´s are
1.3065
1.3058
1.3018
1.2990
1.2968
1.2965
1.2935
1.2904
1.2880

Lancia Stratos #cars #rally

2012-10-26_1918

The Lancia Stratos is unquestionably the most extraordinary rally car ever produced. It is also one of the most successful, having won three times the World Rally Championship (1974-1975-1976 in the hands of Sandro Munari) and probably would have continued to so if allowed to do so. For reasons of internal politics within the Fiat Group, the Stratos was replaced by the Fiat 131 Abarth. Yet it was born by chance: the first prototype Stratos was a project designed by Marcello Gandini for Bertone and exhibited at Turin in 1970. It was essentially an exercise in extreme style and very impressive, with the overall height at just 95cm high! This strange wedge shaped prototype attracted the attention of Cesare Fiorio, the legendary boss of the competition department of Lancia, who needed to replace the carmaker’s aging and outdated Fulvia coupe. Gandini reinvented the design into a relatively more usable car, slightly taller, but still very radical compared to production cars of the period. The lack of overhangs, the long flat hood, the compact silhouette and the huge wraparound windshield all combined to a shape that like nothing else known till then! 
The car was exhibited at the Turin motor show of 1971 and it really impressed visitors. Lucky for Lancia, Ferrari had recently become a part of the Fiat Group too, so the mechanicals of the Stratos came from the Prancing Horse brand. The 2.4-litre V6 engine from the Dino became the natural choice as it was a well tested, compact and powerful unit, which already proven itself in the Dino 246 GT and the latest versions of the coupes and convertibles from Fiat, the Dino. The car still needed to be developed and for that another talented engineer – Gianpaolo Dallara – was involved. After a few pre-production cars in 1973, the Stratos was made in sufficient numbers in 1974 to allow homologation into Group 4. The total production was eventually about 495 cars. Of these, ten were used by Lancia to make official factory Group 4 cars, the others being sold as “stradales” or street cars, some of which were prepared by private rallyists for rallying, following the approved Group 4 regulations. Unlike many rally cars, the Stratos was not derived from a regular production car, but was a clean-sheet design specifically for competition purposes. Its radical design gave it diabolical handling, and combined with a very flexible and powerful engine, the Stratos remained a very competitive car for years after, intimidating all competition, what with its spaceship looks! 
Manufactured by Bertone on the 31st of October, 1974, and bearing chassis number 391, the Lancia Stratos on offer had as its first owner, Lancia Spa. Painted a Blue Azzuro, the car was prepared in a workshop to compete in the Italian rally championship keeping in mind the client configuration of Group 4. Thanks to the research of Thomas Popper we know that between 1978 and 1980, this particular participated at least ten rallies, in the hands of rallyist Domenico Busoni: Rally Alto Appenino Bolognese (1978 and 1979), Coppa Citta Prato, Rally Citta di Modena, Ascoli Piceno Rally, Rally Fagioni, Rally dell ‘Umbria Rally Salto lo Spino, Cronoscalta Caprino-Spiazzi and Rally Trento Bordone. We can see from the copy of the original papers then that the car was registered BO 732456. 
Then this Stratos was integrated into the collection of Luciano Giuliano who, through an important dealer from Monaco, sold the car to Frederic Puren in the mid-1990s. The car was yellow then and the new owner participated twice in the Tour Auto, in 1998 (where it had the number 203), and then in 1999, with the number 242. At that point it was registered 0848 HZD 75. In 2001 the car was sold to a German collector, who usually ran on historic Ford events, registered the car in the Alpes-Maritimes, and then later in Germany. He used the car only two times in events and kept it in his personal collection. 

This Lancia Stratos Group 4 customer car has a fascinating history and looks very exciting in its spectacular Alitalia livery, and has all the necessary preparation for competition for the interiors (roll-cage, bucket seats, harnesses, stripped interior, steering wheel and dashboard, special extinguisher, etc) and the mechanicals (engine, suspension, brakes). The car is equipped with dual tanks and will be delivered with four additional original rims. It is a rare opportunity to acquire one of the most brilliant rally cars ever produced, in its racing version, the most radical and the most effective of all. It is obviously eligible in many historic events in which the spectators are bound to greet the car with all the fervor for a real legend of the motorsport. 

I’ve been in love with it (or should I say “her”?) at an early age, right since I first started learning about cars.

Now it goes on auction with an estimated price of €350 000 – 400 000 in France next November.
More photos & details here, plus some other beautiful pieces and classics.

 

To the tick * ???URO update – $EURUSD $6E_F $$

Some ideas following yesterday´s post in which -following the early morning sell off- price action hoovered around the POC @ 1.2970´s, only to start retracing towards higher areas of value at the end of NY session into the bottom range of the area 1.3015-1.2980, to further retrace into lower value areas, 1.2978-1.2926. 

Important sell off started on Asia and has followed in London and US sessions (as it is starting). The weak area in the 1.3015-1.2980 in which it opened back on Sunday, has been recently broken. The down move has stopped right at the POC 1.2968, as noted below. Although overextended, I would be cautious regarding it and would like to some buyers to step in before buying the dip. There´s plenty of space below, as price is currently on the top of a  70+ pip area (1.2978-1.2926). in that case, I´ll wait for the move to get digested before initiating a long position

The move took almost the whole session to get digested with almost no volatility, only to give room to a second leg into lower areas of value, as noted on the chart below.

2012-10-24_0942

The title of the post has to do with the accuracy of these areas (marked ex-ante, as consequence of previous areas in which buyers or sellers acted accordingly) almost to the tick. I hardly try to predict here, but work by hypotheses that are later tested by price action.  These areas work very frequently and very accurate.

2012-10-24_0921

What I´ll be looking for today? Buyers have stepped up as i´m writing this post (8:51ET EUR/USD 1.2948) right the athe bottom range of the area marked yesterday. So far, the pressure has been mild. 

Numbers posted previously are still valid:

1.2970 is still key, so 1.2990 & 1.3018

To the downside, 1.29030 & 1.2868.

One scenario has to do with continuation of the vertical development into lower areas of value, via a previous retest of 1.2980-1.3000.

1.2916-1.2890 is a weak area. I do expect it to be penetrated towards 1.2880-1.2844, provided price action continues to the downside.

To the upside, I do not see much until 1.3040-1.3080.

 

 

???URO update (US session) – $EURUSD $6E_F $$

Following up on yesterday´s post:

Price action reacted positively during Asia and reached the first target area (1.3062-1.3080)

On Sunday, the following was noted

the retracement has been mild in lieu of the market sell off of Friday. Provided, no sellers show up, I´ll be looking for the move to test a small area 1.3060-1.3080

2012-10-23_1044
Price action rotated around this area throughout the whole NY session.

Important sell off started on Asia and has followed in London and US sessions (as it is starting). The weak area in the 1.3015-1.2980 in which it opened back on Sunday, has been recently broken. The down move has stopped right at the POC of control 1.2968, as noted below. Although overextended, I would be cautious regarding it and would like to some buyers step in before buying the dip. There´s plenty of space below, as price is currently on the top of a  70+ pip area (1.2978-1.2926). in that case, I´ll wait for the move to get digested before initiating a long position
2012-10-23_1045
Alternatively, the vertical development gives way to a change of character that should not be dismissed. Thus, In the event the downside continues, I´ll be looking at 1.2880-1.2845, particularly 1.2867, 1.2886 & 1.2900, all POC´s
2012-10-23_1047

 

???URO UPDATE (Pre NY Session) – $EURUSD $6E_F $$

Price action reacted positively during Asia and reached the first target area (1.3062-1.3080), as posted yesterday:

Provided it gets defended by buyers, then I´ll be looking towards 1.3060-1.3080 (note that 1.3063 & 1.3018 are key pricepoints, both marked by pink dotted lines, in which the move and rotations around price have actually been contained over the last few days)

2012-10-22_0952

There´s a new area that has been developed 1.3030-1.3015 where I would expected buyers to defend, provided price action reaches this area. Nevertheless, It is a small area and seems quite unlikely for it to hold. Thus, bringing the key area 1.2970-1.2926. Also, important to note is the fact that these areas overlap with some POC´s, noted in pink dotted lines, as pointed in previous posts.

..note that 1.3063 & 1.3018 are key pricepoints…

2012-10-22_1002