Crude Oil afternoon Update * Feb. 28

Crude has broken out of 7 day balance area it has been into.


currently sitting at 91.675 as I am wrting this post, which is a key point – Due to last week´s beahaviour I´m working towards the scenario of a big move in either direction.

To the downside, I´m looking into $91.50, followed by $91, $89.95, $89.75 & $89.30 – I am leaning towards a downside scenario, unless I see a rapid  and consistent buying response around the current levels. I´m leaning towards a big move to the downside, provided buyers do not show up.

To the upside, I would like to see $92.75 regained. Then, I will be looking into $92.90, $93.15 & $93.50


QUICK NOTE (late post):  $91.55 is a very important price point. It is the top of the area from which the move of Jan. 1st, 2013 propelled.


Gold Update * Feb.28

1595 & 1590 as important points for price to recover.

For longs I would be starting to become wary below 1586-85, being 1581-1580 another important spot – the closer price gets there (without appropriate buying response), the closer the sellers are to push price lower. 1575. 1572, 1569 as another key point I´ll be watching.

Might sound like a tautology, but that it is what I am seeing now.


€uro update * Late afternoon * Feb. 27

€uro fairly balanced within 1.3140-1.3020 – I would like to wait and see a break of the balance area.

Although there´s negative divergence in place at the time of writing, I am being specially careful with, specially after the  afternoon move.


Thus, some ideas to take into account:

a-) REJECTION OF HIGHER VALUE AREAS WHILE STILL IN BALANCE: Sellers take control within 1.3140 and price retraces back towards 1.3040.


this will bring the pari back into the 1.3020´s, which will not hold due to sustained selling pressure.

1.3020-1.300 is a key value area – I would be looking into 1.2940 if the former gets breached, followed by 1.2880


In this event, continued selling pressure provides some fuel and price shoots upwards – In this event, I will be looking into 1.3180´s, as an important price point.  It should provide some sort of reaction, possibly a good area to see a retracement. Price action at that point will provide the extent of the reaction at that point. Above, I do not see much  until 1.3260. Above 1.3350 is key.


Gold update * Feb. 26

A quick review of the possible scenarios I have drafted last week (Wed. Feb. 21), which I have still played into the current one

Thus, three different scenarios to take into account:

REJECTION of current area + buyers take control –  Gold experiences an important retracement towards the $1580´s, $1590,s, even $1600 – I do not see it very likely, unless the above referenced levels are breached with intense and continued buying action

CONSOLIDATION INTO THE CURRENT (LOWER) VALUE AREA – Possible scenario, contained towards the $1585 area.

POSSIBLE CONTINUATION INTO LOWER AREAS OF VALUE – Also possible. In this case, I´ll be looking at the levels provided above. $1525 is key. I would be wary if price breaks down this level.

Yesterdays chart, pointed out critical areas to be aware of


Current chart, at the time of writing (8:24 PM, ET)


Higher value areas have been reached today (“REJECTION” scenario, above), thus the need to review the possible outcomes.

Todays move surpassed the original targets, reaching the HOD at $1619.70, which is located at the bottom of the $1624-$1619 value area, which should be bring some form of containment. So far, the current balance is located within $1619-$1610.

As always, some hypotesis to work with:

BREAK OF BALANCE TOWARDS HIGHER VALUE AREAS: buyers manage to keep in control without opposition form sellers, rotation around the current levels, followed by another push. I would be looking at $1625 and $1635 as possible areas for sellers to regain control.

REJECTION OF CURRENT LEVELS + CONSOLIDATION: I would be looking into two different subsettings:

a-) retracement, followed by acceptance of lower value area into the $1600-$1598 area, which should provide some (at least) short term support

b-) retracement into lower are of value, below $1595. I would be looking at as possibility for buyers to reagiung into todays lows at $1584. I will be looking here specially $1592.

I tend to pay special attention these type of moves. Specifically, I would be looking into tonight/tomorrow how much pressure can sellers provide (if any) and the extent of it (fast + intense vs. progressive and steady). There´s a lot of space to back fill, specially into the $1600-$1596, which will be a key value area I will be looking into, in the event a retracement takes place.