Following Wednesday´s post, I´ve worked with the following hypothesis
What I´ll be looking for today? Buyers have stepped up as i´m writing this post (8:51ET EUR/USD 1.2948) right the at the bottom range of the area marked yesterday. So far, the pressure has been mild.
Numbers posted previously are still valid:
1.2970 is still key, so 1.2990 & 1.3018
To the downside, 1.29030 & 1.2868.
One scenario has to do with continuation of the vertical development into lower areas of value, via a previous retest of 1.2980-1.3000.
1.2916-1.2890 is a weak area…
Price action (partially) validated the above 1.3018 was reached, area in which sellers stepped up causing a 100 pip+ retracement into 1.2890 on Thursday. Price point which was also noted.
Friday showed buyers defend the 1.2890 level. Price action aimed towards higher areas of value but was not able to surpass the 1.2950´s. Sunday open reached the POC´s at 1.2968 & 1.2964, only to retrace towards lower value areas.
Volatility has increased and range has expanded, while price is currently hoovering on the lower end of the (BIG) range within a bigger uptrend, as described last week
Some impressions for the upcoming days:
– 1.2940 is a key price point. Above that, I do not see any meaningful area until 1.3043-1.3070´s and (a more important) 1.3082-1.3131. Below that, I´ll be looking at 1.3020-1.3038, although this is a small zone.
– Below 1.2940 there´s also plenty of room for price to probe for lower value areas. The meaningful area I would expect buyer´s to defend is 1.2808-1.2755 (POC@1.2784
). Price reaching these lower value areas will make me wary and -possibly- reassess my upward bias.
– At the moment price is currently in the middle/lower end of the range, so odds are pretty much 50/50. I have a slight upward bias.
– A useful tool would be to use the POC´s (pink dotted lines) as key areas in which -usually- price tends to rotate and respect. There has always been some sort of reaction (or rotation) within those Those POC´s are
As I´m writing (Sunday Oct. 28 10:15PM ET) buyers have stepped in. I´ll try to draft a brief update before NY Session opens.