Below is a current chart of my long-term view on the ES.
Noted is a divergence between price and positioning of buyers vs. sellers.-
That is denoting that, while price is increasing, sellers are still (yet) maintaining their short positions. As usual, there are several (at least) two scenarios in which I would like to focus.-
a-) the possibility of longs pressuring the shorts established at 1547.75.- If these decide to cover, it could ignite the spark into further price increases. There are still shorts committed, nevertheless. I have no reference levels above, at the moment.
b-) alternatively, if the positioned shorts are able to sustain the pressure of buyers, we could see a retracement. –
Some key reference levels:
1530-1528 is the immediate area
1518-1510 (broad area)
the closer the pressure into 1504, the bigger the chances of 1494-1490.-
It is important to take into account that during index futures rollover period, the readings of CumDelta (in which I base some of my analysis) tend to be skewed due until all market participants have moved their positions to the current quarter.