Gold * Feb.14 update $GC_F $GLD $GDX $GOLD $$

Gold has reached fresh lows this week at $1636.60

I started the week with a downward bias. See here, and here.

Back on Monday, I laid out three different ideas, although was biased towards more downside.

 

CONTINUATION: The original move replicates into a second leg, further depressing prices (sellers in control) – Seems like the higher probability scenario.

Gold is currently trading at a key level as I am writing (1648). Below, Ill be looking at 1642 & 1640-1639.50.

 

Price action broke aggressively the last reference area I was looking into $1640´s to find responsive buyers defending it. That type of behaviour should not be ignored.

2013-02-14_1159

For that reason I am becoming extremely cautious here, since I want to see if the new lows have only been a “test”, or are an indication of a bigger move to come.

2013-02-14_1207

At the moment, I do not see much below $1636. A sustained break below this level, will likely bring Gold to $1629-$1630

As a working hypothesis, I will still lean into the short side of things. However, a breach $1652 will make me cautios on my short bias and a break of $1655 will make me reasses (at least on shorter time frame). 

DP.-

 

 

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