The week ahead * ???URO update (Thanksgiving Week) – $EURUSD $6E_F $$ #fx #forex

Last post -back on Wednesday 14th– revolved around some key areas in which price action developed over the end of the week.
2012-11-19_0036_0012012-11-19_0036

Overnight price action retraced towards 1.2754-1.2731, as posted yesterday

1.2754-1.2731 is key for the trend to continue down. In that case, possible targets remain as posted.
The line in the sand remains the same. There are several POC´s within the area
1.2746
1.2758
1.2762

Further above, 1.2785-1.2781 is another key area. I´m leaning to think that if the pairs gets towards these levels, likely there would be a change of trend and we would be looking towards higher areas of value. Although several areas above, the main number I am watching currently is 1.2940. Between 1.2800-1.2940 there are a few weak areas that will likely offer some opportunities and rotation.

2012-11-19_00432012-11-19_0042

At the moment is pretty much all about 1.2760´s – Above, I´ll be looking at 1.2770-1.2780 immediately, followed by 1.2890-1.2793 – Although weak area, it might present some resistance.

2012-11-19_0047
Price has moved into upper areas of  value towards the end of the week, peaked and probed into the lower bottom of  1.2728-1.2793 area, which is the new line in the sand I´m watching now for either continuation into lower areas of value, possibly rotate within a 100 pip range in the 1.2793-1.2680´s.  If the latter gets breached, I´ll be looking for the pair to make new lows.
2012-11-19_0049
Alternatively  -following last week´s move- I am switching my stance towards “neutral”/long. The reason for not adopting a full upward trend is that 1.2800´s have not been fully breached and last week for sellers to mantain pressure.

I tend to pay special attention towards the development of symmetrical profiles,  as either accumulation or distribution, depending on the context and location.  In this case, when near the bottom-end of price, it is usually a strong clue of further upside that should not be passed. Specially if followed by a vertical development in terms of price action, as it happened. 
2012-11-19_0051_0012012-11-19_0051
Regardless, the key lies into the confluence area denoted with the next immediate value zone, along with several POC´s 1.2782/1.2784/1.2788.
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Another interesting point to note is that both areas are denote as weak ones, in which some further rotation is expected in order for these areas to be filled
2012-11-19_0102
Thus, a clean and sustained break above 1.2790´s as a key price point for further upside.

1.2760-1.2720 as area in which buyer´s are expected to defend. 

Otherwise, 1.2690-1.2680 will be the next logical place, in term of downside. If this area is breached, I do expect for Euro to make new swing lows.
2012-11-19_0106_001
Alternatively, if 1.2790´s is breached, I´ll be looking at the areas the following areas in which sellers have acted before
1.2948-1.2928 (most important/key are for selling pressure to act)
1.2912-1.2894
1.2889-1.2873
2012-11-19_0104

 

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