Late post due to ISP service failure.
Lack of agreement regarding ECONFIN MInisters brought the pair towards reached the bottom of the demand zone @ 1.2664, as previously posted during last week updates.
Comments from Eu´s Junker ignited the bounce towards to upper notch of the same value area @1.2720, following a full retracement of the move. The area has been respected pretty much to the tick. Volatility is gladly welcomed. Price into lower value areas has been accepted, at least for now.
I have been looking into this area since November 8th post.
I´m still leaning towards the short side, although more cautiously due to current location and conditions.The first downside areas I´ll be watching1.2720-1.26641.2646-1.2626
And November 9th,
Thus, I´ll be looking for some rotation in the 1.2719-1.2663 area and looking how price action develops to see if this is just a probe/test into lower areas of value or some more downside should be expected. So far, I have not seen the buyer´s response I would like to in order to verify the scneario that this is just a test of lower value areas. In that sense, ragaining the 1.2720 level will be key. POC has shifted down to the 1.2746 area. In the event 1.2720 is regained -I´m not inclined to it, though-, then I´ll be looking towards 1.2746. Provided the move continues down (which I´m leaning into it), the closest POC is at 1.2632 which is also another key swing point.
Some work into recent price action shows the following value areas.
So far, long inventory has been holding in quite significant levels regardless of the move down, possibly the sensible recovery in price is reflecting this observation.
A new POC has been established in 1.2715 area, followed to the upside by 1.2746, which is also another key area to watch in the event of a further move up.
1.2754-1.2731 is key for the trend to continue down. In that case, possible targets remain as posted.
In that case, I would be surprised for the 1.2640-1.2630 not to be tested, since it is a key area and swing point.
Price action will ultimately determine the direction, but seems important to not that this is a very tight area, denoting not much participation, which could be easily breached if sellers decide to pressure at those levels. In that event, I´ll be looking for more downside into 1.2580-1.2560.