Yesterday´s post finished with the following commentary
Although currently overextended, I would like to see a clear break of 1.2770 to look -at least- for a move into higher areas of value. As noted 1.2780 & 12800 are key POC. I would expected those to be tested, provided price action continues tot he upside. However, I am still leaning towards some more downside momentum, buyer´s expected to act within 1.2718-1.2662. Particularly, I´m keying in 1.2633
After finding lows of the day @ 1.2736, price action tested the 1.2800 POC only to chop and rotate within the area of value. Asian session provided some downside testing 1.2720, which is the top-end of the demand zone, as previously marked.
As I am writing this post, price has bounced back 40 pips from the 1.2720 lows. Long inventory remains in place, in similar circumstances pointed out on Sunday
I tend to read the type of pronounced price action to the sell side -as noted on the latter leg of the selloff- as usual stop run. However, the move was particular, in the sense that it was faced by an increase in participation of buyers…
Yesterday, I was biased towards more downside. I would like to see how price action develops before taking a stance today, as I´m keeping my options open. Things today are not so clear, and I´ll be keying how levels of inventory react to changes in price before establishing bias.
Another point it is worth to note is that the fairly balanced acceptance that has been experienced over the last few days in the 1.2780-1.2720 . Acceptance of value and rotation over a somewhat defined range tends to leave a symmetrical type of profile. Depending on the context, this could be read as accumulation or distribution. This is the case -at the moment. Usually this type of price action precedes a bigger move. Also, important to take into account that price has move towards lower levels of swing areas, which also is important to note. The more price acceptance there is at these levels, the higher the probabilities for price action to reach toward lower value areas.
I´m still leaning towards the short side, although more cautiously due to current location and conditions.
The first downside areas I´ll be watching
To the upside, price action over 1.2780-1.2802 will make me reassess by downside bias. If 1.2830 is cleared, then I´ll be looking for
POC´s to the upside
POC´s to the downside